![]() ![]() The Dolphins are good enough to have nine or more wins through 11 games, which would put Miami in a strong position to potentially win the AFC East (+230).įitz: Both teams have had their seasons defined by close calls. Check their schedule: After this game, they play the Jets, the Vikings at home, the Steelers at home, the Lions, the Bears, the Browns (still pre- Deshaun Watson) at home and the Texans at home. For futures, I still like the Bengals to win the AFC North with more juice than when the season opened (+325).įor the Dolphins, I'm not sure they're as good as their start, but their start might be good enough for them to do well in regular-season futures. Even so, the Bengals are only a game out of first in the division and a couple of special teams flukes away from being 3-0. Then, to start the season, they faced the teams with last season's Defensive Player of the Year and last season's runner-up, and perhaps predictably, the opposing defenses dominated. Their big offseason moves were to bring in an entirely new offensive line but they didn't play the starters in the preseason, and Joe Burrow had appendix surgery during that time, so they weren't even practicing together. Snellings: I think the Bengals are better than their record indicates, for a few reasons. Our Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation still leaves the Dolphins out of the postseason 29.5% of the time. A small value bet right now is Miami to miss the playoffs, which is currently at +310. Miami is only 11th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) after three games, although some of that is because we don't add in opponent adjustments until after Week 4 and the Dolphins have played a difficult schedule so far. Schatz: No, I do not believe that the Dolphins are as good as their record indicates, especially since they're getting even more attention given that there are only two undefeated teams. At some point, we have to recognize that as a signature weakness and not just a statistical outlier. However, while I do believe the Bills should have won the game, they also squandered key situations. For their first touchdown, the Dolphins possessed the ball after a strip sack of Josh Allen and recovery on Buffalo's 6-yard line. By no means do they have a higher power rating than Buffalo, but the Dolphins also should not be penalized much for beating them, which is sort of what's happening because of the statistics. Ironically, they kind of remind me of last year's Bengals. Are the Dolphins a legitimate playoff contender and capable of a Super Bowl run, if certain things broke their way? Yes, I do believe they are. Kezirian: It all depends how you evaluate a 3-0 record. But they aren't as good as their record indicates. And the Dolphins are really fun to watch. ![]() It's easy to imagine a world in which the Dolphins are 1-2 after three weeks, in which case we aren't even having this conversation. The Dolphins made up a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit in Week 2 against the Ravens and somehow got past Buffalo despite holding the ball for just 19 minutes while getting outgained by 285 total yards. ![]() Do you believe the Dolphins (16-1 to win the Super Bowl, 8-1 to win the AFC) are as good as their record indicates, the Bengals (30-1 Super Bowl, 15-1 AFC) are as bad as they have played, both or neither? Is there a future out there to take?įortenbaugh: Miami is good but not as good as its record indicates. This is a matchup of two surprise storylines this season, as the Dolphins (3-0) are the AFC's only unbeaten team, and the defending AFC champion Bengals (1-2) have struggled to start the season, beating only the Jets. Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-4, 47) Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated. So what plays do our analysts like for this matchup?īetting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings and ESPN Stats & Information's Seth Walder, ESPN analyst Jason Fitz and Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz provide their top plays for Thursday's tilt. With the season now in full swing, there are plenty of opportunities to wager on the game if you so choose. ![]() Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday night with a showdown between the undefeated Miami Dolphins, fresh off hanging on for a 21-19 win over the previously unbeaten Buffalo Bills, and the reigning AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals, who finally got their first win last week, 27-12, against the New York Jets. ![]()
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